This essay by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is fantastic:
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics
The abstract doesn't quite do the essay justice. It's main contention is that there is a realm in which statistical and model based decisions are entirely flawed. There is no model that can predict the impact or return of rare events of great consequence.
Nassim Taleb is one of the few people whom when I read I feel entertained, smarter and generally inspired to be a better human. I read in this article that he follows a paleo diet (which despite not really following at all I have a lot of time for) and earns $60,000 a lecture; how can you not be inspired by this man?
As I mentioned to you, I saw Taleb's 'Black Swans' in the bookshop and picked it up, based on the glowing praised heaped in the paragraphs of this very blog post - but now I'm wondering what exactly is in the book, if this single essay articulates the entire idea.
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